This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1534608752-1928-1995
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 181612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181611
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-181815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Areas affected...Southeast NY and northern NJ into southern New
England

Concerning...Outlook upgrade

Valid 181611Z - 181815Z

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is expected across southeast
New York, northern New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode
Island, with the potential for isolated strong to severe storms, as
a cold front advances southward through the afternoon. Locally
strong, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, though
overall expected severe coverage should remain marginal, precluding
the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Lightning data across southeast NY and mosaic radar
imagery indicated a couple of storms had developed late this morning
along a cold front advancing southward through southeast NY and
northeast PA, while there was also an increase in reflectivity
across extreme southern NH. At 1535Z, the cold front extended from
near the ME coastal region southwestward through extreme southeast
NH and northwest MA to northern PA. In addition to forcing for
ascent along this southward-advancing front through the afternoon,
weak height falls attendant to a shortwave trough tracking east
through the northern Mid-Atlantic states and New England will also
aid in convective development.

Although midlevel lapse rates are weak across this region and
sunshine will be filtered at times due to multi-layered clouds,
pockets of stronger diabatic heating within a very moist environment
(surface dew points in the lower 70s F and precipitable water near
or exceeding 2 inches) will aid in further destabilization. 25-30
kt westerly 500-mb winds accompanying the approaching shortwave
trough will maintain sufficient effective bulk shear for some storm organization. Weak low-level winds should preclude a tornado
threat, with locally strong, damaging winds being the primary
severe-weather threat. Given weak midlevel lapse rates and weak
forcing for ascent aloft, severe coverage is expected to remain
marginal.

..Peters/Hart.. 08/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40257365 40727481 41707506 42307453 42647242 42807081
42327010 41616986 41157002 40257365



------------=_1534608752-1928-1995
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1534608752-1928-1995--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)