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ACUS11 KWNS 172214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172213
TXZ000-OKZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...Southern OK...North TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 172213Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
into early evening. The strongest storms may be capable of
marginally severe hail and localized strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across portions
of southwest OK/northwest TX, and also southeast OK, with other
attempts at development noted along multiple surface boundaries
across southern OK into north TX. Moderate-to-strong buoyancy
(2000-3000 J/kg) will support strong initial updrafts, with modest northwesterly midlevel flow potentially supporting transient
multicell structures capable of marginally severe hail. A few strong
wind gusts will also be possible, especially with any storms that
propagate south of the initiating boundary, where a hot and
well-mixed boundary layer is in place. Storm coverage is expected to
remain isolated to widely scattered, given the lack of larger-scale
ascent across the region, and the overall threat will remain too low
for watch issuance.

..Dean/Thompson.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 35019995 35029804 35069527 34489460 33929450 33589450
33619525 33449627 33209750 33099846 33039936 33649963
34330001 35019995



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