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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1312

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 17, 2018 20:56:54
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 172056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172056
    COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-172300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1312
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

    Areas affected...Central High Plains

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 172056Z - 172300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging wind gust are possible for
    the next few hours across the central High Plains.

    DISCUSSION...Airmass downstream of the immediately lee of the
    central Rockies has been gradually destabilizing amidst strong
    heating and modest upslope flow this afternoon. Current mesoanalysis
    indicates convective inhibition has now eroded across much of the
    region with MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. As such, storms
    initiating along the higher terrain should now encounter a
    thermodynamically supportive downstream environment. However,
    mid-level flow is weak, resulting in an overall dearth of vertical
    shear, which should preclude much storm organization and keep
    overall storm persistence minimal. General expectation is for storms
    to persist for a hour or two into the central High Plains before
    dissipating. Some hail and/or strong wind gusts may occur with the
    strongest cells but the limited duration and coverage of the severe
    threat will likely preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Dial.. 08/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 39980539 40050544 41360557 41700464 40920397 39420355
    37620334 36810346 36960478 38860529 39980539



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