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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1311

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 17, 2018 20:39:56
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172039
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-172245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1311
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast AR...West-Central/Central MS...Northeast
    LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 172039Z - 172245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next
    hour or two. Limited severe threat precludes the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple boundaries exists across the warm and moist
    airmass over the region. Two outflow boundaries are moving
    southeastward out of AR into northern LA and west-central MS. The
    leading boundary will likely intersect another outflow moving more northwestward across west-central/central MS. This boundary
    interaction may lead to brief updraft intensification but the lack
    of stronger vertical shear will prevent updraft persistence, leading
    to a pulse multicell storm mode. This pulsing pattern has been
    observed throughout the day as storms develop along one of the
    numerous boundaries and then quickly weaken. A damaging wind gust or
    two is possible but the marginal nature of the severe threat and its
    limited duration and extent will preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Dial.. 08/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 34269084 34109230 33539302 32089264 31609121 31788940
    33218914 34269084



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