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ACUS11 KWNS 171942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171941
IDZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...Central ID...Far Southwest MT...Far Northeast
NV...Far Northwest UT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171941Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of hail and/or strong wind gusts are
possible as thunderstorm coverage increases over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Forcing for ascent will continue to increase as the
shortwave trough moving through southern OR/northern CA progresses
eastward over the next several hours. This increased forcing for
ascent coupled with airmass destabilization fostered by daytime
heating, deep boundary-layer mixing, and increasing mid-level
moisture is expected to result in a gradual uptick in overall
thunderstorm coverage. Storm mode is expected to remain mostly
multicellular, although isolated instances of a more linear/bowing
structure are possible.

Mid to upper-level flow is expected to gradually increase as the
shortwave trough moves closer to the region. This will help
strengthen vertical shear to around 40-45 kt, which is strong enough
to support updraft organization. However, the lack of better
low-level moisture will keep instability rather weak, reducing
updraft strength and tempering the overall severe threat. Even so,
isolated hail and a few strong wind gusts will remain possible.
Anticipated limited severe coverage will likely preclude the need
for watch.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON 43731704 44711688 45061676 45411654 46091552 46231431
45771295 45061236 44131226 43071246 42111295 41151422
41341617 42311683 43731704



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