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ACUS11 KWNS 171910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171910
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern WV...western/central
MD...DC...and northern/central VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171910Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal strong/gusty wind risk should continue through
the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening. Watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so
across the higher terrain of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian
Mountains of WV/VA as the glancing influence/large-scale ascent of a
weak shortwave trough overspreads this region. The airmass
downstream of ongoing convection is moderately unstable, with 19Z
RAP mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg present. The
main limiting factor that will probably preclude a more substantial
severe threat is weak low to mid-level winds. VWP from LWX radar
indicates low/mid-level flow of no more than 20 kt in the 0-6 km AGL
layer. These modest winds will likely limit greater storm
organization, with just occasional clustering possible as convection
moves eastward off the higher terrain. Nevertheless, given the steep
low-level lapse rate environment, convective downdrafts may locally
accelerate enough to produce mainly sporadic tree damage. Watch
issuance appears unlikely for now given the weak shear, but
convective trends will be closely monitored for any signs of greater
than expected storm organization this afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Dial.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37667970 38037979 39297838 39597768 39607719 39347665
38777676 38087713 37567805 37387911 37537949 37667970



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