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ACUS11 KWNS 171842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171842
MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-172115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1307
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NY/PA...northern
NJ...southern VT...and western MA/CT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171842Z - 172115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to locally damaging winds
should continue to increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop
and move eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within
the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is well underway across parts of
eastern NY/PA behind morning showers and thunderstorms associated
with a low-amplitude lead shortwave trough over New England as of
1830Z. Continued diurnal heating across this region given cloud
breaks noted on visible satellite imagery will allow surface
temperatures to generally reach into the mid to upper 80s, and
plentiful low-level moisture will contribute to MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a warm front. However, poor
mid-level lapse rates noted on 12Z soundings from ALB, BUF, and PIT
will likely temper even greater instability this afternoon. The 18Z
sounding from ALB modified for current conditions shows some
steepening of low-level lapse rates, and this process should
continue with eastward extent across western MA/CT and southern VT
as the surface warm front lifts northward.

Recent VWPs from BGM, CCX, and ENX show low-level southerly winds
veering quickly to southwesterly in the 0-6 km AGL layer, although
the magnitude of these winds remain generally limited (at or below
30-35 kt). Even so, around 25-35 of resultant effective bulk shear
should prove adequate for scattered thunderstorms organizing into
multicell clusters. This convection will mainly pose an isolated
strong to damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening
given the steepening low-level lapse rates and modestly
strengthening low to mid-level flow. A few marginal supercell
structures with some hail threat may also occur with south/westward
extent where instability is stronger. A brief tornado cannot be
completely ruled out along the warm front given the locally backed
near-surface winds locally enhancing 0-1 km SRH. Given the expected
increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the next couple
of hours, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to address this
threat.

..Gleason/Dial.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 42877260 42397247 41617286 41237369 40957453 40567557
40327676 40487744 40907768 42477616 43307500 43277319
42877260



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