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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1306

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 17, 2018 14:24:25
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171424
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171423
    ARZ000-OKZ000-171600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0923 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

    Areas affected...East-Central OK...Northwest/West-Central AR

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 171423Z - 171600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail are possible for the
    next hour or two. Higher severe thunderstorm coverage is expected by
    midday as the convective line becomes more surface-based.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar imagery shows a convective
    cluster moving through northeast OK and northwest AR. Based on KSRX
    imagery, outflow associated with this cluster remains ahead of the
    stronger cores, suggesting storms are currently elevated and likely
    sustained primarily by warm-air advection amidst moderate elevated
    instability (as sampled by the 12Z LZK sounding). These inferences
    are further confirmed by additional thunderstorm development well
    behind the line in southeast KS.

    Expectation is for the cluster to remain elevated as it continues
    southeastward for the next two hours or so. Thereafter, daytime
    heating and rich low-level moisture will aid in the development of a
    more surface-based character to the convective line. Damaging wind
    gusts or hail are expected to remain more isolated before this
    transition to more surface-based updrafts occurs. Even so, trends
    will be monitored closely and a watch may be needed if trends
    suggest the line is becoming surface-based.

    ..Mosier/Dial.. 08/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

    LAT...LON 36139380 36249316 36209272 35689196 35229194 34689253
    34629361 34739483 35059519 35689508 36139380



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