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ACUS11 KWNS 291839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291839
KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...far
southwestern Kansas...western OK/TX Panhandle...and the Transpecos

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291839Z - 292045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should pose mostly an isolated
hail/wind threat through the afternoon. Coverage is expected to be
too sparse for a WW issuance, however.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 satellite imagery indicated a gradually
deepening cumulus field and isolated thunderstorm activity along
western portions of the discussion area (particularly in
central/eastern NM southward into far west Texas). Objective
analyses and point forecast soundings suggest an environment
favorable for continued intensification and maturation of convection
in this area given steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and weak to
moderate buoyancy. Deep shear is relatively weak (20-30 knots) and
only marginally supportive of storm organization, suggesting that
any sustained or persistent activity will likely depend on merging
outflows and upscale growth into quasi-linear convective bands.
Latest high-res model guidance suggests that this should only occur
on an isolated basis, with any damaging wind and/or hail threat also
remaining isolated. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this
activity.

..Cook/Grams.. 04/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 36510499 37040421 37780315 38110245 38010181 37590177
36740221 35760272 34490309 31840321 30990327 29980352
29920410 30810458 31470458 32280494 33410532 34920519
36510499



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ACUS11 KWNS 082008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082007
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Central SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

Valid 082007Z - 082130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will
continue across central SC.

DISCUSSION...Convective line moving into central SC has shown a
discrete propagation thus far with updrafts on the leading edge
struggling to maintain organization and intensity. The downstream
air mass is characterized steep low-level lapse rates but relatively
modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg) and weak vertical
shear. As such, the current trend of discrete propagation on the
cold pool is generally expected to continue with a primary severe
threat of damaging wind gusts. A few instances of hail are possible, particularly if updraft augmentation is realized as a result of cell interactions.

..Mosier.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34468254 35068194 35098088 34568019 33398079 33288216
33768262 34468254



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