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ACUS11 KWNS 170254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170254
KSZ000-170430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1304
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 170254Z - 170430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Lingering thunderstorm activity and associated risk for
mainly severe hail is expected to gradually diminish late this
evening. An additional severe weather watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A low-level baroclinic zone remains a focus for strong
to severe thunderstorm development near and east/southeast of
Salina. This appears to be supported by a corridor of residual
moderate boundary layer instability (CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg),
in the presence of moderate to strong deep layer shear beneath
30-40 kt northwesterly 500 mb flow. With the continuing progression
of the mid-level closed low into the middle Mississippi Valley and,
perhaps more importantly, continuing boundary layer cooling and
gradual stabilization, the lingering risk for severe hail and
locally strong surface gusts is expected to diminish through the
04-05Z time frame.

..Kerr.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 39019803 38969609 38649496 37639558 37629672 38259796
39019803



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