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ACUS11 KWNS 162253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162252
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-170015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1303
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas/western
Missouri/northeastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338...

Valid 162252Z - 170015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop across the
watch area and pose some risk for severe hail and wind into the 7-8
PM time frame. Thereafter, continuing severe weather potential
remains unclear, but it is possible that another watch could become
necessary to the east, across parts of southern Missouri and
adjacent northern Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase to the
southeast of the Interstate 35 corridor of eastern Kansas. This
activity appears focused along a weak baroclinic zone near the
southern periphery of a mid-level closed low now digging across the
middle Missouri Valley, where 30-40+ kt westerly 500 mb flow is
contributing to moderately strong deep layer shear.

Into the the early evening hours, it does appear that a gradual merger/consolidation of this activity with vigorous thunderstorms
now developing along northeastward advancing convective outflow
(emanating from north central Oklahoma) will continue east of
Wichita, across the Chanute area into the southern Kansas/Missouri
border vicinity. Subsequent evolution and the potential for an
appreciable continuing risk for severe hail and wind remain unclear
thereafter, due to generally weak low-level forcing for maintaining
convective development. However, it appears at least possible that
one prominent surface cold pool could eventually emerge and maintain
vigorous convective development on its leading/eastern edge, tending
to propagate southeastward across the Interstate 44 corridor of
southwest Missouri, in the presence of 20-30 kt westerly deep layer
mean flow.

..Kerr.. 08/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38739272 38299187 37199141 36349172 36139302 36339431
36439490 36839606 37799724 38579564 38879336 38739272



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