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ACUS11 KWNS 281911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281911
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Pennsylvania...northwestern New Jersey...southeastern New York and adjacent areas of the northern
Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281911Z - 282115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow line of thunderstorms may form across parts of
eastern Pennsylvania by 5-6 PM EDT. This could be accompanied by
the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts as it spreads east
northeastward, perhaps impacting portions of the Philadelphia
metropolitan area northward into the lower Hudson Valley through
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Cloud cover and precipitation, including shallow
convective development, associated with mid/upper forcing for ascent
ahead of a significant upstream trough, is gradually spreading east/
northeast of the Allegheny Front. This is beginning to encounter an
axis of relatively stronger surface heating and boundary layer
mixing across eastern Pennsylvania into portions of the Catskills
and lower Hudson Valley, where boundary layer moistening and cool
temperatures aloft are contributing to weak CAPE.

It appears that this will be sufficient to support increasing
deepening convective development during the next few hours. This
may include thunderstorms, perhaps within in organizing convective
line (in the presence of favorable vertical shear) by 21-22Z.
Although near surface winds are weak, downward mixing of 30-50 kt
southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, augmented by evaporation
and melting precipitation in the sub-cloud mixed layer may
contribute to occasional surface gusts at approaching severe limits.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/28/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40787657 42077449 41667372 40867449 39807563 39667652
39867691 40787657



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ACUS11 KWNS 081901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081900
MEZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central ME

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 081900Z - 090100Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1 inch per hour or greater,
should occur through at least 01Z (9 PM EDT).

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over northern NY and southern QC
will move eastward across New England this afternoon and evening.
Strong large-scale ascent is present ahead of this feature, and a
southeasterly low-level jet should remain over much of ME. A broad
area of precipitation is ongoing across New England, with relatively
stronger radar returns over southern ME expected to shift northward
into parts of northern/central ME through the afternoon. A generally
east-west oriented band of heavy snow should develop as a residual
dry low-level airmass becomes saturated, with rates of 1 inch per
hour likely. Locally higher rates will be possible in the strongest
part of the band. The snow may gradually transition to sleet and/or
freezing rain across central ME as the low-levels gradually warm.
Decreasing precipitation rates appear probable after 01Z (9 PM EDT)
as the shortwave trough shifts eastward over the Canadian Maritime
provinces and the western Atlantic.

..Gleason.. 04/08/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 44366802 44696945 45107039 45497085 45957040 46717010
47056974 47176919 46816806 46456767 45766766 45646735
45346729 45196705 44966691 44716691 44456752 44366802



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