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ACUS11 KWNS 162013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162012
MOZ000-KSZ000-162115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1302
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 162012Z - 162115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms, some producing severe hail and
gusty winds, are expected within the next few hours. Issuance of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely soon.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has recently occurred just to the
west of TOP, south of a cold front, with additional storms expected
(as indicated by recent CAM guidance) over the next few hours.
Though directional low-level shear is present, 925-850 mb flow is
rather weak, with unidirectional shear present mainly above 850 mb.
Still, steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7.0+ C/km,
resulting in 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, and 40 knots of effective bulk shear
suggest that organized updrafts are possible, with large hail a
concern. A few damaging wind gusts also cannot be ruled out,
especially given deep moisture throughout the troposphere (PWAT
values over 1.8 inches in many locales), which may promote wet
downbursts.

Given the relatively strong forcing for ascent associated with the
cold front and the propensity for multiple storms to develop in a
relatively favorable sheared/unstable environment, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued for both the highlighted
area, and the region discussed in MCD 1301.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 38779537 38929598 39309627 39829620 39929608 39909557
39969514 40219428 39929361 39449331 38859366 38779537



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