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ACUS11 KWNS 161919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161918
OKZ000-KSZ000-162145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1301
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Central/eastern Oklahoma...Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161918Z - 162145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the
mid-late afternoon hours. Large hail and damaging gusty winds are
the primary threats. Convective trends are being monitored for the
potential issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV, currently centered over northwest
Oklahoma, is propagating eastward, with scattered thunderstorms
ongoing across Alfalfa to Kingfisher Counties. Additional cells are
initiating along a surface boundary, where a pooling of higher
dewpoints (mid 70s F) were observed, roughly located from north of
END to GCM.

The MCV is progressing eastward into an increasingly unstable
airmass, characterized by 1500-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, mainly driven by
deep low-level moisture (72-75 F dewpoints) and noticeably steep low
and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km. Effective bulk shear
values are stronger in the northern regions of the discussion area
(i.e 30 knots), with weaker values (20 knots) farther south.

Current thinking is that the greatest concentration of storms will
occur ahead of the MCV, along the aforementioned surface boundary,
where congealment into a multicellular complex is likely. Damaging
wind gusts associated with downbursts from water-loaded downdrafts
are more likely with the most intense storms. In addition, the
relatively steep 700-500 mb level lapse rates (evident via the 18Z
TOP special sounding) may also promote the generation of severe
hail, especially with some of storms associated with the stronger
deep-layer shear to the north.

Confidence regarding the coverage of severe wind and hail are a bit
uncertain at this time, and convective trends are being monitored
for the potential issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as details
of severe coverage become more clear.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35959797 36219805 36529807 37239787 38749752 38979662
38609548 38109518 37429508 36849481 36389475 35759482
35659592 35669672 35729736 35779788 35959797



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