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ACUS11 KWNS 152346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152346
TXZ000-160145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1299
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0646 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152346Z - 160145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms along an outflow boundary will be
capable of mainly isolated severe wind gusts. Activity should weaken
after sunset. A WW is not likely.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has formed along a remnant outflow
boundary. A relative maximum in instability, with MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg, exists along the boundary. Effective bulk shear of
25-30 kts has allowed for at least transient storm organization
which has been observed on KAMA radar imagery. However, low-level
wind profiles are more impressive than the mid- to upper-levels per
KAMA VAD. With strong surface heating contributing to very steep
low-level lapse rates, severe wind gusts are the most likely hazard
with this activity. Isolated, marginally severe hail may occur with
any of the stronger/more organized storms. As these storms appear
driven by diurnal heating, activity is expected to wane by 01-02Z. A
WW is unlikely.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34440195 34880248 35390231 35410131 35000045 34590016
34170022 34040065 34100136 34440195



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