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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1298

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 15, 2018 23:23:17
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152323
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152322
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-160115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1298
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0622 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...northeast New Mexico...Western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 152322Z - 160115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and
    marginally severe hail will be possible over the next few hours. A
    WW is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed across the Raton Mesa and have
    been slowly propagating to the southeast. Overall storm coverage has
    remained low at least in part due to modestly rising mid-level
    heights over the region. Moist southeasterly flow has led to mid-50s
    to low-60s dewpoints and 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With 25-30 kts of
    effective bulk shear, at least some organization is possible.
    Isolated instances of severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail
    will be the main threats. Latest CAM guidance has shown a general
    downward trend in the longevity of this activity, much of it ceasing
    by 01-02Z. Given the expected continuation of rising mid-level
    heights and a generally weak low-level jet early this evening, the
    overall spatiotemporal extent of the threat appears to be minimal. A
    WW is not anticipated, however, trends will continue to to be
    monitored.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 08/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37110433 37670403 38060333 37800269 37190229 36660219
    35870230 35560244 35310284 35240338 35360442 35990468
    37110433



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