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ACUS11 KWNS 151952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151952
NEZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151952Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to potentially severe storms will be
possible within the next few hours. Straight line damaging winds and
large hail will be the primary threats with this activity.
Convective trends are being monitored for the issuance of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...A leading convection-trailing stratiform MCS is
currently traversing the north-central Nebraska/south-central South
Dakota border, with weaker convection back-building along its
southwestern flank, and an outflow boundary sagging south and west
of a line extending from ONL to TIF. This MCS and associated outflow
boundary are progressing east-southeastward into an ambient
environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (driven mainly by
7.5+ C/km lapse rates and dewpoints into the 60s), 35 knots of
effective bulk shear, and strong deep-layer ascent due in part to a
mid-level vort max propagating eastward from western South Dakota.


Low-level speed/directional shear is weak across the discussion
area, suggesting that most storms will be outflow dominant in
nature, and with a 1200 m sub-cloud layer present, damaging gusty
winds will be a concern. The modest deep-layer shear also suggests
that some mid-level updraft organization/rotation will be possible,
prompting a large hail threat.

As convection has been rather slow to re-develop across the
discussion area, and given a marginal ambient
kinematic/thermodynamic environment present, convective trends will
continue to be monitored regarding the issuance of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 42040164 42000147 41930108 41930069 42010042 42130031
42310015 42519996 42669976 42789953 42899918 42949886
42779835 42589820 42219807 41899807 41759802 41339810
40749834 40419854 40259928 40459987 41000043 41360096
41700130 41880146 42040174 42040164



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