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ACUS11 KWNS 151950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151950
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1296
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Southern IL...Southwest KY...Far Southwest IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151950Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for locally damaging wind gusts exists ahead of the
ongoing thunderstorm cluster across southern IL.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown increased forward
propagation over the last half hour or so as the stronger storm
moving across far southeast MO becomes more outflow dominant and
interacts with the weaker cells ahead of it. Motion of this
thunderstorm is also favorably aligned with the low to mid-level
flow across the region. Recent KPAH and KVWX VAD data indicates 30
kt southwest winds at 1 km. In additional to contributing to
increased potential for damaging wind gusts, this stronger low to
mid-level flow is also increasing low-level vertical shear and
overall updraft strength. Low-level lapse rates are more favorable
farther south, but recent mesoanalysis still suggests a narrow area
of 7.0+ deg C per km lapse rates immediately ahead of the surging
thunderstorm cluster. All of these factors result in increased
probabilities for damaging wind gusts immediately downstream of the
ongoing cluster. Eastern extent of threat will likely be limited by
cooler temperatures and weaker instability in southern IN. Limited
spatial extent of the threat tempers the need for watch.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON 36778889 36868931 37198948 37688927 38028846 38028734
37548704 36968736 36778889



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