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ACUS11 KWNS 151904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151904
VTZ000-NYZ000-152130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Areas affected...Northern NY...Northern VT
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 151904Z - 152130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will remain possible for the next several
hours. A few of these storms may produce isolated damaging wind
gusts and/or hail.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating amidst the moist airmass across the
region is contributing to moderate instability ahead of a shortwave
trough and associated cold front. Continued forcing for ascent along
the boundary and attendant to the shortwave trough will provide the
impetus for additional thunderstorms, although overall coverage is
not expected to be particularly widespread. At the same time,
enhanced mid-level flow attendant to the shortwave trough will
spread eastward into the region, resulting in an increase in
vertical shear. This increase in vertical shear supports the
potential for more organized updrafts and a resultant threat for
damaging wind gusts and/or hail. Limited severe coverage is expected
to temper the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Hart.. 08/15/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44237609 44477542 44627444 44697351 44607210 44157209
43557332 43137440 42787606 43147722 43747669 44237609
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