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ACUS11 KWNS 151626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151626
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-151830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Much of ME...Northern NH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151626Z - 151830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage expected with isolated
damaging wind gusts and/or hail possible.

DISCUSSION...Airmass ahead of a shortwave trough moving through
southern Quebec continues to destabilize amidst mid 60s dewpoints
and ample daytime heating. Widely scattered convection has been
observed thus far with storms struggling to maintain updrafts. As
heating continues and the forcing for ascent increases, the
expectation is for more overall thunderstorm coverage and
persistence. Given the moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE around
1500-2000 J/kg), a few stronger updrafts capable of damaging wind
gusts and/or hail are possible. However, the overall severe
potential will be mitigated somewhat by the presence of generally
modest mid-level flow and resulting lack of strong vertical shear.

..Mosier/Hart.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 46497014 47096958 47376903 47186802 45956787 45416767
44786827 44506882 44276953 44187051 44147117 44427167
45117144 45837028 46497014



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