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ACUS11 KWNS 150456
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150455
OKZ000-TXZ000-150600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Southwest OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150455Z - 150600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A limited spatiotemporal risk for strong winds and
marginally severe hail risk may continue for another hour or so
across southwest OK.

DISCUSSION...A remnant convective cluster has consolidated in Kiowa
county, where recent storm-scale mergers have likely supported an
uptick in organization per reflectivity and velocity structures
sampled by KFDR. Low-level southerlies of 30-35 kt per KFDR VWP data
appears to be compensating for increasing MLCIN/decreasing MLCAPE.
While the weakening instability will result in decaying intensity
overnight, a small spatiotemporal window for strong wind gusts and
marginally severe hail may persist through 06-07Z towards the Red
River.

..Grams.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 34979906 34699879 34339872 34119881 34119919 34319961
34649975 34919963 34979906



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