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ACUS11 KWNS 150101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150100
AZZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150100Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts could occur through late evening.
However, the threat should remain too marginal for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Stronger thunderstorms have developed off both the
Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast Arizona this evening.
Ahead of this convection, the 00Z TUS sounding sampled weak
mid-level buoyancy atop steep low-level lapse rates, yielding around
1500 J/kg of DCAPE. As these cells and their related outflow advance west/southwest into lower elevations, deep/well-mixed boundary layer
profiles will support some stronger gusts through late evening.
Nonetheless, weak/unorganized deep-layer wind profiles should limit
overall storm organization, precluding watch issuance.

..Picca/Grams.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 32350977 31921075 31911144 32331280 33361326 34111325
34411301 34761247 34801206 34261138 33291015 32820944
32350977



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