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ACUS11 KWNS 142331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142331
COZ000-150130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Front Range of Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142331Z - 150130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms capable of severe hail will
be possible through about 02-03Z. A WW is not likely.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed along the Front Range. 9 km
radar CAPPI shows several 50+ DBZ cores and a couple 1+ in. hail
reports have occurred over the last hour or two. While instability
is modest at 500-1000 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and
effective deep layer shear of 30-40 kts will continue to support a
hail threat, particularly in the northern portion of the discussion
area, through early evening. Activity should wane by 02-03Z with
onset of boundary layer stabilization. Given the limited extent of
the threat, a WW is not likely.

..Wendt/Grams.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40940395 40540365 39940368 39240382 38340398 37760421
37340467 37320488 37940550 38920579 39600578 40320564
40660518 40910442 40940395



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