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ACUS11 KWNS 142315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142315
OKZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1288
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142315Z - 150045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists for isolated large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a brief tornado across central Oklahoma through
approximately 03Z. Watch issuance appears unlikely at present,
though.

DISCUSSION...An expanding cluster of storms, aided by
moist/confluent southerly boundary-layer flow, is maintaining some
severe threat across central Oklahoma currently. KTLX and TOKC data
indicate occasional supercellular structures embedded within this
cluster. Although mid-level lapse rates are modest, rich low-level
theta-e is yielding sufficient buoyancy in the hail-growth zone for
a brief/isolated large hail threat. Additionally, backed surface
winds amidst a very moist boundary-layer environment may support
occasional low-level mesocyclones, which would enhance the threat
for a few stronger gusts and perhaps a brief tornado this evening.
Still, modest mid/upper flow and storm development largely parallel
to deep-layer shear vectors should limit the threat enough to
preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Grams.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 36109927 36339694 35999634 35019630 34739728 34339842
34699926 35759943 36109927



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