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ACUS11 KWNS 142036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142035
OKZ000-TXZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...Western into Central
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 142035Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible over the next
several hours. Storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts in
addition to large hail. A WW issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed in the
northeast Texas Panhandle into far northwest Oklahoma along a
boundary embedded within a broader zone of confluence. In addition,
a strong storm exhibiting transient supercell characteristics was
located along the McClain/Cleveland County Oklahoma border. These
storms are progressing across a moderately unstable airmass which
has recently undergone recovery from earlier precipitation via
strong surface heating. MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/Kg are common
across much of the discussion area, and recent TLX profiler data
suggests modest low-level directional shear (150 m2/s2 SRH) is
present. Still, with modest mid and low-level lapse rates (i.e 6
C/km), and negligible speed shear throughout the troposphere
characterizing the ambient atmosphere, any severe threat that occurs
is expected to be brief. The moderate instability environment
suggests that the more organized/long-lived updrafts may pose a
threat for large hail and gusty winds, though some brief instances
of low-level rotation may be observed with the strongest of storms
given the modest low-level directional shear.

Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35530105 35890023 36399952 36589874 36399716 35949665
35499641 35129641 34669659 34189686 33919710 33749758
33649820 33879894 34269983 34630027 35530105



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