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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1286

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 14, 2018 20:29:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 142029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142028
    COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-142230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1286
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0328 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

    Areas affected...much of eastern Wyoming...parts of far southeast
    Montana and northeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 142028Z - 142230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe storms are likely to form this afternoon,
    with large hail the primary threat. Isolated damaging wind is
    possible as well, and perhaps a brief tornado over northeast
    Wyoming.

    DISCUSSION...Low clouds have eroded over the region, with heating
    helping to reduce CIN. Widely spaced storms have formed over the
    higher terrain, from the Big Horns southward toward Ft. Collins.
    These storms, along with additional development, should spread
    eastward later this afternoon, aided by gradual destabilization and
    a shortwave trough aloft. The approach of this trough will result in substantial cooling aloft, further steepening midlevel lapse rates.
    While low-level winds will remain weak, mid to upper level flow will
    increase resulting in long hodographs favorable for hail storms.
    With the surface low developing across central WY, surface winds
    will remain backed across southeast MT and northeast WY, and this
    area will have the greatest risk of supercells and perhaps a brief
    tornado threat.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 08/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 44230694 44700722 45040715 45180694 45210593 45150523
    44840445 44110415 43210411 41160416 40810426 40550456
    40470508 40850565 41440604 42280635 43020688 44230694



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