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ACUS11 KWNS 132244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132243
NMZ000-140015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 132243Z - 140015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms may be capable of brief, marginally severe
hail and strong, gusty winds through this evening. Watch issuance is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Ascent on the fringe of a mid-level vorticity max has
combined with terrain-induced circulations to produce isolated
storms over northeast New Mexico late this afternoon. Although
surface dew points are relatively low (in the 40s to lower 50s),
mid-level cooling/saturation has yielded adequate elevated buoyancy
for a couple stronger cells. As they move south, a storm or two may
acquire transient mid-level rotation, owing to modest deep-layer
shear provided by 20-30 kt of northerly 500mb flow. Any such cell
will be capable of isolated hail. A few stronger gusts may be
possible as well, given the deep/well mixed boundary layer
environment. Despite this potential, a lack of greater coverage and organization is expected to preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Grams.. 08/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34160483 34430546 34790580 35230587 35650566 36540535
36910367 36220320 34860321 34250367 34160483



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