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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1282

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 13, 2018 18:07:43
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131807
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131807
    OKZ000-TXZ000-132030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1282
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

    Areas affected...north central Texas into far southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 131807Z - 132030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A general increase in storm coverage is expected this
    afternoon, and a few cells may acquire weak rotation.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass with precipitable water in excess
    of 2.00" continues to gradually shift northward behind an initial
    bout of rain now across OK. An effective warm front is currently in
    place across far northern TX, where surface winds are weak but
    locally backed. Deeper storms have recently developed across north
    central TX, where temperatures were rising into the 80s F. In
    addition, 2 hr pressure falls have increased to around 1.5 mb,
    suggesting a continued uptick in activity. 0-1 km SRH has risen to
    around 100 m2/s2, as shown by objective analysis along the warm
    front, and observed by the FWS VWP.

    While the lack of inhibition and pockets of heating are likely to
    contribute to widespread rain and storms, the very moist low-levels
    combined with low-level shear may be sufficient to induce rotation
    in the embedded stronger cells, with a brief/weak tornado or strong
    wind gust possible. However, the threat does not appear great enough
    to warrant any type of watch.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 08/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33419847 33869804 34209734 34369668 34309606 34129565
    33689554 33109583 32669648 32279734 32089789 32209865
    32559882 32999873 33419847



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