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ACUS11 KWNS 131757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131757
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-132030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Mon Aug 13 2018

Areas affected...Southwest Pennsylvania...central and eastern West Virginia...western and central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 131757Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms producing isolated damaging wind gusts/marginally severe hail are possible during the mid to late
afternoon hours. WW issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have recently developed across southwestern Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and points eastward along
the higher terrain of the Appalachian mountains. With continued
surface heating expected across the area, additional storm
development is expected. Low-level lapse rates are steep (i.e
7.5-8.0 C/km), currently contributing to MLCAPE values over 1000
J/kg. Buoyancy is expected to remain somewhat marginal for the
remainder of the day, given modest mid-level lapse rates and low
level moisture. The kinematic environment, represented by weak flow
(up to 500 mb) and subsequent shear, also suggest that few storms
will have the potential to organize and pose a severe threat.
Nonetheless, somewhat cooler temperatures aloft may support
marginally severe hail growth with some of the strongest updrafts
that manage to organize. Occasional strong downbursts with stronger
cells may also result in damaging, gusty winds.

As such, a WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 36658003 37148024 37658044 38138098 38568139 39038141
39538105 39798050 40138021 40577995 40547958 40257931
40087869 40007831 39667811 39217776 39077756 38747740
38337719 37077859 36658003



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