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ACUS11 KWNS 130319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130318
AZZ000-CAZ000-130415-
Mesoscale Discussion 1280
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018
Areas affected...Portions of southwestern Arizona
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...
Valid 130318Z - 130415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
continues.
SUMMARY...While isolated stronger gusts remain possible across
southwest Arizona, the severe threat should further diminish this
evening. Ongoing Watch 336 will likely be canceled before the 06Z
expiration time.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm outflow has modified most areas within the
ongoing watch this evening, with surface temperatures generally in
the 70s and 80s from Phoenix to points north and east. As such, the
severe threat has likely dissipated here. To the southwest,
deep/well mixed boundary-layer profiles remain, and localized
clusters/mergers may support isolated damaging winds. However,
decreasing mid-level flow with southwestward extent should combine
with slowly increasing surface-based inhibition to further reduce
severe potential here as well. Considering the overall downward
intensity trends, Watch 336 will likely be canceled prior to its
original 06Z expiration.
..Picca.. 08/13/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 32581299 32341400 32531446 33261463 33791432 34331266
34411235 34461136 33831149 32771244 32581299
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