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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1279

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 13, 2018 01:01:09
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130100
    AZZ000-130300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1279
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

    Areas affected...Central/Western Arizona

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

    Valid 130100Z - 130300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A broken line of storms continues moving southwest in
    central Arizona in/near WW 336. Upscale organization is possible
    with severe wind/hail still likely.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms stretching from north of
    Phoenix to northeast of Tucson is moving southwest with a history of
    severe warnings. Storms are in/moving into MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
    with marginal effective bulk shear (25-30 knots) indicating the
    potential for hail while steep low-level lapse rates, surface
    dewpoint depressions of 40+ F, and DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg along/ahead
    of the storms indicate the potential for severe wind. If a cold pool
    can establish behind these storms, the severe threat will
    increase/continue and mitigate the decreasing instability as
    insolation wanes. Strong/severe storms may also develop along/south
    of Watch #336 and will continued to be monitored.

    ..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34351403 34531304 34651216 34731144 34511110 34291093
    33881086 33151088 32821062 32561064 32481146 32511221
    32501308 32481331 32351398 32941398 34351403



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