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ACUS11 KWNS 122216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122215
AZZ000-CAZ000-122345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 122215Z - 122345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will build west/southwestward late this
afternoon, with an attendant threat of damaging winds and isolated
hail. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong/severe convection has developed along the higher
terrain of central Arizona this afternoon. Anvil precipitation has
shown some tendency to spread downstream of stronger cores, owing to
around 25-30 kt of northerly anvil-layer flow. As cells progress
west/southwest into lower elevations, though, a greater rearward
component of upper-level flow should enhance cold-pool formation.
Combined with deep/well-mixed boundary layer profiles (e.g., DCAPE
upwards of 1300-1500 J/kg) and west/southwesterly low-level flow,
this evolution should support at least a few pockets of
damaging/severe winds and brief/marginally severe hail. Watch
issuance late this afternoon is possible.

..Picca/Grams.. 08/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 34301050 33381000 32491069 32321257 32811389 33381415
35161413 35411349 35281256 34301050



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