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ACUS11 KWNS 112221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112220
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Areas affected...Northwest Arizona...Southwest Utah...and Southeast
Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112220Z - 120045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop over the higher terrain
in southwest Utah and northwest Arizona. Hail and strong wind gusts
are possible.

DISCUSSION...Thermal-terrain circulations have helped breach
convective temperatures and thunderstorms are developing over the
higher terrain in a modestly buoyant environment (MLCAPE 500-1500
J/kg). 30-40 F surface dewpoint depressions demonstrate a dry
sub-cloud layer and LCLs are generally around 5000-9000 feet AGL.
With these conditions and DCAPE of 1200+ J/kg, strong wind gusts and
severe wind are possible in this environment. Hail is also possible
given the modest buoyancy and drier air in the column with higher
elevations favored since the freezing level is closer to the
surface. Overall, weak flow aloft/shear will limit upscale
organization and the overall severe threat as these storms slowly
move/develop to the southwest. Sustained, rotating updrafts are
unlikely, but collapsing storms and upslope flow should continue
initiating storms through the evening. A watch issuance is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 36981199 36551211 36081207 35591190 35281179 34961163
34601142 34291145 33951180 34091253 34231316 34341377
34561428 35071455 35841450 37051447 38021450 38171439
38351394 38431358 38321300 38161240 38041183 37681175
36981199



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