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ACUS11 KWNS 081044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081043
NEZ000-081145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0543 AM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018
Areas affected...Portions of southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081043Z - 081145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail will remain possible through sunrise. The
threat should be localized in nature, though, and watch issuance is
not expected.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong to occasionally severe
convection has persisted over south-central Nebraska this morning,
seemingly aided by large-scale ascent from a weak impulse noted in
water-vapor imagery over South Dakota and Nebraska. Steep mid-level
lapse rates are supporting adequate updraft acceleration for
localized instances of small/near-severe hail, but KUEX VWP and
forecast sounding data illustrate relatively disorganized deep-layer
wind profiles. In turn, loosely organized multicells, capable of
brief marginally severe hail, likely represent the upper bound of
potential this morning, and watch issuance is not expected. Cells
are forecast to diminish later this morning as forcing for ascent
departs to the east/southeast.
..Picca/Edwards.. 08/08/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40059910 40219965 40899997 41399986 41429940 41309861
41309839 40919776 40479730 40079725 40009797 40019841
40059910
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