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ACUS11 KWNS 102157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102156
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Plains and Mid
Missouri/Mississippi Valleys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102156Z - 110030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to develop along/near a surface
boundary and an upper-level trough axis. Strong wind gusts are
possible.

DISCUSSION...Scattered pulse thunderstorms continue to develop
across this region in the vicinity of a surface boundary and
upper-level trough axis. Storms are forming in a moderately buoyant
environment (1500-2500 J/kg), but without strong shear and flow
aloft, a pulse storm mode should continue as outflow from
dissipating storms will help generate new storms. Strong daytime
heating has destabilized lower-levels and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg
indicate the potential for strong wind gusts. Some severe wind
reports have already occurred in Oklahoma and the wind threat should
continue until around sunset when activity is likely to decrease.
The convection should remain unorganized and the overall severe wind
threat is limited/isolated, therefore, a watch is unlikely.

..Nauslar/Grams.. 08/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 36450011 35540060 34960030 34479958 34569880 34909741
34949541 35459465 35989411 36589312 36989247 37299193
37699116 38199035 38669002 39039027 39159154 38859334
37989600 37369830 37279852 36999968 36450011



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