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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1271

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 10, 2018 00:11:56
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 100011
    AZZ000-CAZ000-100245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0711 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

    Areas affected...Central and Western Arizona...Far Southeast
    California

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 100011Z - 100245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind damage threat will continue as a line of storms
    move south-southwestward across western and central Arizona this
    evening. A weather watch remains possible across the region.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms
    between 40 and 100 statue miles to the west of Flagstaff. This line
    is located in a moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE values are
    estimated in the 1200 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km lapse
    rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range across much
    of western and central Arizona. This along with 0-6 km shear of
    20-25 kt should be enough for a wind damage threat with the stronger multicells. This threat should eventually affect areas near Phoenix
    extending westward to near the California-Arizona state line later
    this evening. If the outflows congeal into a larger-scale cold pool
    with more widespread wind damage as a result, then a watch could
    need to be issued.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 08/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 34931132 35491269 35711319 35501366 34781426 34011461
    33321456 32831377 32721293 33241208 34931132



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