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ACUS11 KWNS 092210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092210
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1270
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Georgia and South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092210Z - 100015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue develop across portions of Georgia
and South Carolina. Severe wind gusts are possible, but an organized
severe threat remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm complex has pushed east across the
Southeast today and storms have fired along a surface boundary
stretching from central South Carolina back west/southwest into
Louisiana. Storms are developing within moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg), and strong daytime heating has produced relatively
steep low-level lapse rates indicating the potential for
strong/severe wind gusts. Upscale organization is unlikely given the
weak shear, and storms should slowly propagate/develop to the
east/southeast. Given the marginal severe environment, a watch is
unlikely.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 08/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 33007945 33707955 34228006 34858102 34878255 34108362
33128498 32038499 31888410 31968311 32028152 32418059
32707992 33007945



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