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ACUS11 KWNS 092053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092053
AZZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Areas affected...Parts of western and central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092053Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm activity accompanied by at least
some risk for severe wind and perhaps hail, mainly along the higher
terrain northwest through north of the great Phoenix metro area
through 3-5 PM MST. It is possible that this may require a severe
weather watch later this afternoon or evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to initiate near the
Mogollon Rim in the vicinity of Flagstaff, as daytime heating
gradually contributes to boundary layer destabilization
characterized by moderately large CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. This
appears likely to continue, with additional storms developing along
the Rim and higher terrain around Prescott through 22-00Z, with
further insolation.

As activity increases, 20-30 kt of vertical shear beneath
northeasterly mid-level flow could contribute to some convective
organization, with stronger cells perhaps becoming capable of
producing locally strong wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe
hail. This will be aided by evaporative cooling associated with
sizable sub-cloud temperature/dew point spreads. With time
consolidating surface cold pools may support further upscale
convective growth, with a tendency for activity to begin to
propagate westward and southwestward toward the lower deserts, where
a more substantive severe wind threat may develop this evening.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON 35161238 35271137 34751101 34251033 33851136 33941293
34271326 34741363 35301330 35161238



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