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ACUS11 KWNS 091955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091955
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Thu Aug 09 2018

Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 091955Z - 092100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A band of storms developing across northern portions of
the discussion area will pose an isolated hail/wind threat over the
next several hours. A WW is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A broken band of storms continues to develop along a
front located from just north of Lone Rock, WI to Milwaukee, WI at
this time. These storms are in a modestly sheared, yet strongly
unstable environment characterized by 20-25 kts of deep shear and
3000+ J/kg MUCAPE, respectively. Given the initial linear
organization with these cells, some southward propagation of the
activity is expected with time especially as cold pools mature
beneath ongoing storms. High-resolution model guidance further
supports this notion, with storms potentially reaching northeastern
Illinois by the 22-23Z timeframe. A risk for isolated damaging wind
gusts and hail will exist with the strongest activity, although this
threat should remain isolated enough to preclude a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Cook.. 08/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43449056 43619001 43408887 43048780 42438684 42168667
41818681 41528765 41748873 42439015 42869065 43449056



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