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ACUS11 KWNS 082233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082232
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern NM and the western TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082232Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and severe wind gusts
will remain possible with ongoing thunderstorms for the next couple
of hours. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within
northwesterly flow aloft is located over southeastern
CO/southwestern KS late this afternoon. Low-level southeasterly
upslope flow in eastern NM is weaker compared to the prior several
days. But, some modest strengthening of the winds with height and a
strongly veering wind profile is resulting in around 25-35 kt of
effective bulk shear across this region. With steep mid-level lapse
rates still available and sufficient (but somewhat limited)
low-level moisture present, around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE exists
as of 2230Z. A couple of storms have exhibited supercell
characteristics over the past hour or so, and large hail will likely
be the main threat with any ongoing supercells as they develop
southward across northeastern NM and the western TX/OK Panhandles.
Isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible given steep
low-level lapse rates. With minimal strengthening of a low-level jet
expected this evening, upscale growth of thunderstorms into a
cluster/line seems improbable. Therefore, the overall severe threat
appears too isolated to justify WW issuance.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33880593 35540561 36620532 36530452 36970324 36980197
36720169 35500174 34800228 33940315 33580373 33320435
33330526 33880593



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