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ACUS11 KWNS 082203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082202
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0502 PM CDT Wed Aug 08 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern MN...northern WI...and the
Upper Peninsula of MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082202Z - 090000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and strong/gusty winds will be
possible with developing thunderstorms. The overall severe threat
will likely remain too isolated to warrant Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance.

DISCUSSION...The glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated
with a shortwave trough over Ontario is combining with weak
low-level convergence along a surface cold front to initiate
isolated thunderstorms across the MN Arrowhead and vicinity as of
22Z. Much of northern WI has warmed into the low to mid 80s with
diurnal heating, and a moist low-level airmass is present across
much of this region. Even though mid-level lapse rates remain modest
(around 6.0-6.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), MLCAPE of 500-1500
will support continued storm development and intensification through
the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. Mid-level
northwesterly flow is stronger with northward extent into Canada
closer to the mid-level trough. Even so, there is some overlap of
these enhanced mid-level winds with the weak to moderate
instability. Supercells may be the initial storm mode given around
35-40 kt of effective bulk shear, and a splitting storm has already
been observed in southern Lake County in MN. Large hail will
probably be the main severe threat initially. Additional convective
development along the front may increase the strong/gusty wind
threat over the next couple of hours. Instability wanes with
eastward extent across the Upper Peninsula of MI due to persistent
cloud cover, and convective coverage through the evening remains
unclear. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time, mainly owing
to the expected isolated nature of the severe threat.

..Gleason/Hart.. 08/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX...

LAT...LON 47049271 47469179 47839055 47978958 48278839 47848772
47438761 46928753 46398786 45988853 45408978 45399138
45549224 46249284 47049271



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