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ACUS11 KWNS 080217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080216 COR
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080400-
Mesoscale Discussion 1260
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0916 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018
Areas affected...Central/southern Front Range of Colorado...far
northeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...
Valid 080216Z - 080400Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT LOCATION REFERENCE
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.
SUMMARY...Southern portions of WW 335, as well as areas just to its
north will continue to see a threat for large hail and severe wind
gusts over the next few hours. Convective evolution of these two
clusters of storms is uncertain at this time. Should upscale growth
occur, the primary threat will become severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...Most of the activity within WW 335 has waned with the
exception of storms ongoing in northeast New Mexico. Storms in
Colfax County, NM have produced at least one instance of hail
greater than 2 in. in the last couple hours. Another storm in
Huerfano County, CO continues to pose a severe hail threat as well.
The cluster of storms in northeast New Mexico may still congeal and
pose a more organized severe wind gust threat; however, given how
discrete storms have remained to this point, it is unclear whether
this will occur.
Farther north, a few supercell storms have progressed outside of WW
335. The storm moving over Kit Carson County, CO has produced at
least two reports of 2+ in. hail in the last two hours. With the
continued approach of a mid-level wave to the northwest, there is
indication that this activity may be maintained; however, CAM
solutions have been erratic in terms of how they handle this cluster
of storms over the next few hours reducing confidence in
coverage/longevity of the threat. The 00Z DNR and RIW soundings
showed mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 C/km which would
indicate hail will continue to be a threat going forward. Effective
shear is also supportive of storm organization across the region
with 35-45 kts being analyzed by RAP. Severe wind gusts will also be
possible, though the overall extent of that threat is conditional
upon upscale growth of this cluster.
..Wendt.. 08/08/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35740304 35740337 36260533 38430601 38440601 38720592
39820514 40290417 40180252 39750199 39230197 38220248
37580262 35740304
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