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ACUS11 KWNS 072244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072244
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-080045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Central/southern Front Range of Colorado...far
northeastern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

Valid 072244Z - 080045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and large hail continues
for WW 335. Several severe hail reports have occurred with storms
initiating on the higher terrain. With time, a cluster of storms is
expected to congeal, most likely in the southeastern portions of WW
335, and pose more of a severe wind gust threat.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete thunderstorms have formed along the
Front Range over the past couple of hours. Several severe hail
reports (1-1.75 in.) have been noted with these storms. However,
most storms have struggled to sustain themselves as they move off of
the terrain, likely due to some remaining MLCIN. Recent radar mosaic
and visible satellite indicate that more robust development has been
occurring -- in Elbert County, CO and near the CO/NM border in Las
Animas County, CO -- along the edges of where RAP has analyzed
MLCIN. Where storms are able to sustain themselves, 1000-2000 MLCAPE
and 30-50 kts of effective deep-layer shear will support severe wind
gusts and large hail. Given steep mid-level lapse rates, 2+ in. hail
cannot be ruled out with the stronger cells. Guidance still suggests
that, with time, some upscale growth is possible with the most
likely location being near the Raton Mesa where MLCIN appears to
have been eroded. Should this occur, a threat for severe wind gusts
would become the main threat.

..Wendt.. 08/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35740304 35740337 36250533 38430601 38450601 38680597
39560505 39560505 39560505 39560504 39560500 39560326
39560315 39560315 38270273 38250273 38000273 37810273
37630275 35740304 35740304



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