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ACUS11 KWNS 072141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072140
OKZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072140Z - 072345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe wind gusts will be possible
for the next hour or two. Storms are expected to weaken as they move
into a more stable environment to the east. A WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A few storms have formed along a stationary boundary
draped across central Oklahoma with aid from a mid-level shortwave
trough. An outflow boundary from earlier convection resides east of
this activity from near Tulsa, OK southeastward to near Fort Smith,
AR. A local maximum in MLCAPE (2000-2500 J/kg) has led to rapid
development of these storms. With relatively steep low-level lapse
in the area and 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear, at least some
threat for severe wind gusts is possible -- a 64 mph gust was
measures at Wiley Post Airport within the last hour. With relatively
stable air to the east, questions remain as to how long this
activity will last, particularly as the upper-level support moves
off to the east. Given this uncertainty, a WW is not anticipated.
However, trends in storm organization/longevity will be monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35489784 36019729 36569601 36509495 35809479 35259497
35069524 34909590 34999725 35119777 35269794 35489784



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