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ACUS11 KWNS 071703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071703
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-071900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern Pennsylvania and southern New York
through New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071703Z - 071900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in coverage and intensity of
thunderstorms should continue throughout the discussion area over
the next couple of hours and beyond. A WW issuance may be needed
for some portions of the discussion area later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Areas of strong insolation and weak inhibition were
fostering strengthening, surface-based destabilization across the
discussion area. Meanwhile, a couple of areas of congested cumulus
and isolated thunderstorms were apparent in satellite across Maine
and also across southern and eastern New York and vicinity. These
trends should continue through the afternoon given sustained surface
heating and the glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough
currently over Quebec. Deep shear profiles will support
organization especially in northern portions of the discussion area
where mid-level flow will be the strongest. Observations and model
guidance both support a mix of cells and linear segments migrating
through the discussion area, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and
isolated hail increasing over time. Given these convective trends,
portions of the region may require a Severe Thunderstorm Watch later
this afternoon - most probable in New England where stronger shear
and ascent exist. Watch probabilities range from 20% in southern
portions of the discussion area (Pennsylvania/New York) to around
40% in Maine.

..Cook/Thompson.. 08/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 47136906 47216850 47126804 46706766 45756750 45326742
44766833 43737009 42077171 41357295 41137413 41387534
41647613 42187612 43147460 44047257 45117114 45897031
46626986 47136906



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