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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1254

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 07, 2018 06:05:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 070604
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070604
    ILZ000-MOZ000-070700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1254
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0104 AM CDT Tue Aug 07 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of the mid Mississippi valley

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 070604Z - 070700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts remain possible early this morning.
    However, the threat is forecast to diminish over the next couple of
    hours, and watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A small, but robust convective cluster has produced
    occasional wind damage over eastern Missouri this morning as it
    moves east around 40-45 kt. Enhanced convergence and focused
    propagation along outflow to its east are likely maintaining the
    severe threat more than would be expected otherwise, considering the
    presence of non-negligible surface-based inhibition. Still, the ILX
    00Z sounding sampled relatively steep lapse rates, such that some
    residual mixed layer (atop a thin, nocturnally cooled surface layer)
    is aiding updraft accelerations for parcels forced to their LFC by
    the cold pool. With that said, this cluster and a small linear
    segment to the north in Illinois should become increasingly
    displaced behind surging outflows this morning, with the the
    damaging-wind threat diminishing accordingly.

    ..Picca/Edwards.. 08/07/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 39209186 40898978 40718835 40098805 38888876 38588965
    38789147 38999187 39209186



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