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ACUS11 KWNS 062339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062338
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-070145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska...southern Iowa...northern
Missouri...far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062338Z - 070145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms along a cold front will be capable of mainly severe
wind gusts with perhaps an isolated instance of severe hail. A WW is
not anticipated though trends in storm organization are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Storms have initiated along a cold front from Nemaha
County, KS northeastward to areas along the Iowa/Missouri border in
response to a mid-level wave approaching from the northwest. Local
subsidence in the wake of a weak disturbance now located in western
Illinois appears to be limiting storm coverage currently; however,
increasing influence of the upstream trough should increase coverage
with time. Effective bulk shear values of 30-45 kts -- increasing
modestly with time -- will support storm organization. Modest
mid-level lapse rates should limit the hail threat. Strong surface
heating has contributed to MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and, with
low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, a threat for severe wind gusts
will be greatest threat. Concerns regarding the overall coverage of
the threat make a WW unlikely. However, should a more organized
linear system evolve, a WW would be possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40689647 41209523 41269386 41009200 40619146 40179219
39999350 39849463 39709564 39729637 40219669 40689647



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