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ACUS11 KWNS 062221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062221
INZ000-ILZ000-070015-
Mesoscale Discussion 1250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018
Areas affected...Portions of central Illinois and northwest Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062221Z - 070015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated
marginally severe hail possible this afternoon/evening. A WW is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A weak, mid-level disturbance now approaching
west-central Illinois is leading to a few storms developing along a
cold front from northwest Indiana to near Lincoln, IL. With better
upper-level flow displaced to the north, a storms will struggle to
organize. Instances of marginally severe hail are possible, but
should remain isolated given the generally weak mid-level lapse
rates. Strong surface heating has contributed to MLCAPE values from
2000-3000 J/kg. Severe wind gusts will be the greatest threat with
any of the more robust storms. Given the expected limited extent of
the threat, a WW is not anticipated. However, trends in storm
organization will continued to be monitored.
..Wendt/Hart.. 08/06/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 40248983 40588954 40898902 41268810 41478762 41648732
41718686 41698654 41518630 41018649 40528729 40198770
39888887 39918976 40248983
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