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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1249

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 06, 2018 20:50:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 062050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062049
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1249
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

    Areas affected...Northwestern NEbraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 062049Z - 062215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase through the evening with a
    threat for some isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have continued for most of the day in an area of
    weak low-level convergence stretching across northwest Nebraska into
    far eastern Wyoming. These storms have been primarily elevated, but
    have recently become more surface based as temperatures have warmed
    into the mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and
    inhibition has eroded. This yields MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg.
    This region is on the northern extent of the better mid-level flow,
    but effective shear is still around 45 to 50 knots across this
    region. The combination of continued downstream heating combined
    with the increasing ascent ahead of the southeastward moving
    shortwave trough in western South Dakota will likely lead to
    increasing storm coverage through the afternoon and into the
    evening. Given the kinematic and thermodynamic environment,
    organized severe storms are possible, however, storm coverage and
    orientation of the boundary will likely promote destructive
    interference which will likely limit the overall severe threat.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42900411 42960332 43000245 43020138 42980060 42700040
    42380044 42140089 41950159 41890234 41930308 42060394
    42420440 42660449 42900411



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