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ACUS11 KWNS 062016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062016
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-062245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Western Tennessee...Southeast Missouri...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois...Far Southwest
Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062016Z - 062245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat is likely to continue across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley through late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a very moist airmass
in place across the mid Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints
are generally in the mid 70s F. This is contributing to strong
instability with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE values in the 2500 to 3500
J/kg range from northeast Arkansas into far southern Illinois. This
combined with 0-3 km lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km will support a
marginal wind damage threat as cell coverage continues to increase
this afternoon. Brief wet downbursts may be associated with the
stronger pulse storms and multicells.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 08/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 34939174 34659101 34828993 36358860 37408707 38448712
38958751 39008820 38798903 38348974 37629043 36229178
35339207 34939174



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